Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
